I've been using LLMs to help write code since before ChatGPT existed, and otherwise have 30 years of traditional experience as a lead engineer. My AI driven development processes have been improving regularly over the past few thousand hours, and most of my production work is now entirely automated. It would be much harder to make my systems work if I had to coordinate with a team of human devs, so my work has basically been reduced to a solo position.

It's not a popular thing to say, but the problem most shops have is that people already aren't as capable as LLMs at engineering solutions to well known tasks (AI systems aren't as good yet at novel science, but that's changing quickly). Trying to get human involvement coordinated properly in the mix of organizational software development workflows, is what complicates the process.

My position won't be needed much longer for any engineering effort, although I expect I'll still get work because many humans will prefer to interact with a human project manager. But within a few years, the entire industry will not employ people at all like it did.

The first wave of layoffs was much too early - managers didn't understand that the LLMs were not yet good enough and that all the surrounding infrastructure was not yet mature enough to replace human work, but that situation is changing fast. The software development industry is inevitably going the way of the horse-drawn carriage industry in 1908.

But that's just the beginning. Understand the bigger perspective: within a few years, the world economy will no longer function as it does now, because it will be possible to entirely replace humans with physical robots which can do everything humans can, only, much more effectively, and for much less money. It will take years to manufacture that workforce, but that inflection point is coming. As soon as it becomes cheaper to replace humans with machines, people will no longer be employed in the same way.

When that turning point arrives, robots will quickly replace humans in most work roles. That transition will be fairly easy to implement. It won't require re-forming all of Earth's infrastructure, because the robots will be manufactured in the shape of humans, so they'll be a drop-in replacement wherever humans are needed. Of course, humans will want human interfaces to the machines, but most of the hard work will be accomplished by metal workers. That change is coming, just as surely as cars replaced horse-drawn carriages in the early 20th century.

We are in the midst of the biggest reshaping of human society ever in history. Of course the software industry is a mess right now, and of course it's confusing - it's just one of the first industries to be reformed. Most humans still think they're more intelligent and capable than AI systems, but that is no longer true, for many tasks that matter. AI isn't the same as humans, and it's probably not yet sentient, but I expect it will be, at least in every way that matters for productive work, very soon.

Hold on to your seats, this whole situation is going to move much more quickly, and the changes will be far more profound. I expect war and suffering during that transition, because people will need to adjust to a change of function, power, and purpose, but if humanity survives, a utopia will be possible. I'm not sure we'll survive...

I've been using LLMs to help write code since before ChatGPT existed, and otherwise have 30 years of traditional experience as a lead engineer. My AI driven development processes have been improving regularly over the past few thousand hours, and most of my production work is now entirely automated. It would be much harder to make my systems work if I had to coordinate with a team of human devs, so my work has basically been reduced to a solo position.

It's not a popular thing to say, but the problem most shops have is that people already aren't as capable as LLMs at engineering solutions to well known tasks (AI systems aren't as good yet at novel science, but that's changing quickly). Trying to get human involvement coordinated properly in the mix, is what complicates the process. My position won't be needed much longer for any engineering effort, although I expect I'll still get some work because humans will still want to interact with a human project manager. But within a few years the entire industry will not employ people at all like it did. The first wave of layoffs was much too early - managers didn't understand that the LLMs were not yet good enough and all the surrounding infrastructure was not yet mature enough to replace human work, but that situation is changing very quickly. The software development industry is inevitably going the way of the horse-drawn carriage industry in 1908.

But that's just the beginning. Understand the bigger perspective: within a few years, the world economy will no longer function as it does now, because it will be possible to entirely replace humans with physical robots which can do everything humans can, only, much more effectively, and for much less money. It will take years to manufacture that workforce, but that inflection point is coming. As soon as it becomes cheaper to replace humans with machines, people will no longer be employed in the same way.

When that turning point arrives, robots will quickly replace humans in most work roles. That transition will be fairly easy to implement. It won't require re-forming all of Earth's infrastructure, because the robots will be manufactured in the shape of humans, so they'll be a drop-in replacement wherever humans are needed. Of course, humans will want human interfaces to the machines, but most of the hard work will be accomplished by metal workers. That change is coming, just as surely as cars replaced horse-drawn carriages in the early 20th century.

We are in the midst of the biggest reshaping of human society ever in history. Of course the software industry is a mess right now, and of course it's confusing - it's just one of the first industries to be reformed. Most humans still think they're more intelligent and capable than AI systems, but that is no longer true, for many tasks that matter. AI isn't the same as humans, and it's probably not yet sentient, but I expect it will be, in every way that matters for productive work, very soon.

Hold on to your seats, this whole situation is going to move much more quickly, and the changes will be far more profound. I expect war and suffering during that transition, because people will need to adjust to a change of function, power, and purpose, but if humanity survives, a utopia will be possible. I'm not sure we'll survive...